I came across a 2024 predictions post recently, and one of the predictions within left me feeling like many people are missing the mark regarding the real potential for AI. Prediction number six on this list from LinkedIn News is titled: ChatGPT’s hype will fade, as a new generation of tailor-made bots rise up.
The gist of the prediction and the line of thinking I’ve also seen elsewhere is that “niche” bots that help people with very narrow use cases will proliferate and begin to take the place of tools like ChatGPT, which will fall out of favor because they try to be everything to everyone and therefore wind up pleasing nobody.
Make no mistake — I’m not a defender or a huge fan of ChatGPT. I detail a few reasons why in the clip below from our latest AI Knowhow podcast. I find ChatGPT to be a rudimentary way to interact with a technology that’s as advanced as and has as much potential as AI.
What I feel like is slightly off about the prediction is how limiting and short-sighted it is, even if we’re only talking about predictions for the next year.
Looking at the Past to See the Promise of the Future
What’s the issue with the idea that specialized chatbots and agents represent the future of AI? Mainly it’s this: chatbots and agents are how we use AI today. They’re basic interfaces that allow us to tap (and type) into the vast resources that are now at our fingertips thanks to artificial intelligence.
Let’s put things in historical perspective as a way to illustrate the point. Think back to the very first time you ever browsed the web. You likely would’ve used a dial-up modem and a service like Prodigy, Netscape, or AOL to connect to the Internet. Once you finally got online, you would’ve viewed a text-based web page that, by today’s standards, would look and feel laughably basic.
The times we’re in now with AI are even earlier days than those were with the web. What the user experience of AI will become, and what this revolutionary technology can enable, requires thinking far bigger than a chatbot that can help you master the tango or refine your tabbouleh recipe.
What’s Next? AI Will Begin to Blend Intelligently Into The Fabric of Our Lives
If this focus on bots and agents misses the mark on how we’ll soon be interacting with AI, what kind of future do I see? I believe the future of AI is the integration of AI with ambient computing. The logical next step in the progression to get there, and something I predict we will see in 2024, is the advent of intelligent interfaces.
Ambient computing is the idea that computing is embedded into our everyday lives. It doesn’t necessarily require logging into an external tool or application to accomplish a task. The smart home movement and the automations it enables is one tangible example of ambient computing. Alexa is another. There’s no typing or tapping to interact with Alexa. She’s just…there.
As with the early days of the Internet analogy, I’d point to the history of computing for another example of how the way we interact with AI will rapidly shift away from typing prompts or commands to chatbots into something entirely different and more profound.
The earliest days of computing required users to enter punch cards into mainframes that weighed five tons. Eventually, computing shifted to the desktop, then to the laptop, then to mobile phones, then to smartwatches. Now, there’s even an AI-powered wearable pin that I’d venture to guess has more computing power than the earliest mainframes did.
The main point here is this: just as computers have become smaller and more powerful and have increasingly become indispensable parts of our everyday lives, so too will the form function and user experience of AI rapidly evolve. And make no mistake — the UX of AI will develop on a far more compressed timeline than it took to go from mainframe to mobile phone.
In 2024, we won’t yet get to the point where AI is integrated with ambient computing. What we will see is the next step in the evolution of the UX of AI, which will be the advent of intelligent interfaces. An intelligent interface understands how you naturally work, what you need to accomplish, and meets you where you’re at. It doesn’t require a series of long, drawn-out prompts or chats or numerous bites at the apple from ChatGPT to help you accomplish what you’ve set out to do.
This advent of intelligent user experiences will usher in the move from a world full of SaaS products to one where AIaaS products prosper. Instead of yet another system or tool to log into and be distracted by, modern AIaaS products will layer onto existing experiences and technologies to engage with, provide value to, and drive the behavior of their users.
It surely won’t take decades for us to get to the point where we look back at the current incarnation of ChatGPT and think to ourselves, “Can you believe that was how we used AI in the beginning?” My only question is, will it take more than a year?
More Predictions on AI in 2024
The most recent episode of our AI Knowhow podcast looks at some more predictions for AI in 2024. I’d encourage you to give it a look or a listen if you find this post insightful.
In addition to this space, I’m active on LinkedIn and always love to engage with people who are shaping the future of AI. Please feel free to follow or connect with me on LinkedIn.
